Recap of ALCS Game 4

The Indians beat the Red Sox 7-3 in ALCS Game 4. The Indians had a monstrous seven run fifth inning. Jhonny Peralta put the exclamation point on the Indians’ seven-run fifth innng with a three-run homer off Tim Wakefield. Paul Byrd, the starter for the Indians, pitched five strong innings, in which he gave up two runs. I mentioned that the number of walks given up would make a difference in this game, and it held true tonight: Byrd had zero walks, while Wakefield walked two.

After winning Game 4, the Indians are trying to close out the series at home. They are looking to make it back to the World Series since 1997. Better yet, they are looking to get to the World Series and win it – for the first time since 1948; this is the second longest drought in MLB history behind yours truly, the Chicago Cubs. I still don’t forgive myself for predicting they’d make it to this year’s World Series. How embarrassing.

After the game ended, Paul Byrd went on to say, “We want to put them away here. That’s a great team over there. They can easily come back and win three. We’re taking absolutely nothing for granted. We’ll enjoy the win for now, but we want to put them away.” Right he is. We all remember the 2004 ALCS and that relentless Boston team, so the series is far from over. Looking at statistics from MLB postseason play for a team that is ahead in wins by a 3-1 margin, we have the following breakdown:

  • Team ahead won in 5 games – 34 times
  • Team ahead won in 6 games – 17 times
  • Team ahead won in 7 games – 4 times
  • Team ahead lost in 7 games – 10 times

So if Boston can win game 5, and looking at past history, they would have an approximately fifty percent chance of winning the series (because if Boston can force a game seven, odds that they will win that game, at home, are in their favor). But for now, Wednesday is a day off.  Thursday Cleveland will send C.C. Sabathia against Boston’s Josh Beckett. Game 5 should be pretty exciting.

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~ by mlb2007playoffs on October 17, 2007.

One Response to “Recap of ALCS Game 4”

  1. […] my previous post, I provided some statistics for Boston’s chances of winning the series. Namely, for a team […]

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